Brown's down . . . but is he out?

Mar 30 2008 by Phil Doherty, Sunday Sun

PRIME MINISTER Gordon Brown is on the ropes as the Tories take a 13-point lead in the polls while, worse still, in Labour’s heartland of the North and Scotland, the two parties are running neck and neck. There is also dissension in the ranks as former North cabinet ministers and Blairites Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers questioned whether he is fit to lead the party to a historic fourth term. Phil Doherty asks is Brown a dead leader walking, or can he bounce back?

FOR a man who never tried to hide his ambition to be Labour leader, it must feel like a poisoned chalice to Gordon Brown today.

Some people are even beginning to get a bit wistful about Tony Blair, who seems far more relaxed since he handed over the reigns of power to Brown. The same cannot be said of his former Chancellor.

Brown, who ran the Treasury with an assured touch for 10 years, has in recent months been hit by a series of crises and scandals — most notably the Northern Rock fiasco — while some fear the country is lurching towards a recession.

And last week a Guardian/ICM opinion poll showed the Tories surging 13 points ahead.

Even more concerning is the erosion of the bedrock of Labour support in the North and Scotland. Astonishingly, Labour and the Tories are running neck and neck in these areas.

How soon before the mutterings of discontent grow to open calls for him to quit?

Howard Elcock, a lecturer in politics at Northumbria University, said they should not act too hastily.

He said: “It’s too early to say whether Gordon Brown is the right person to lead the Labour Party to another General Election win.

“He was a safe pair of hands as a Chancellor but he has not displayed the same consistency as Prime Minister.

“However, there is life in the old dog yet as Gordon Brown is a survivor and a long-haul man.”

Mr Elcock said the recent polls should be of grave concern to Labour.

He explained: “Labour cannot survive as a Government just with the North and Midlands seats. They must keep those seats in the South they won in 1997.

“But even in the North East, the old compact with the electorate is breaking down and the solidarity is weakening rapidly.

“The longer the credit crunch goes on, the more likely that Gordon Brown will be in trouble. The economy is not looking very good at the moment and people are feeling the effect of high fuel and food costs.

“But in the long term, the idea of a steady pair of hands at the tiller could prove to be his greatest asset with the electorate.”

Jim Cousins, Labour MP for Newcastle Central, is a big supporter of Brown but said that it might have been better, in the eyes of the electorate, if he became Prime Minister after a leadership contest.

He said: “That would have been a democratic process that would have allowed the public to see what issues Gordon Brown believes in.

“As Chancellor, Gordon carried out one of the most brilliant stewardships of the economy. He got things right for more than 10 years and that has been his real achievement.

“This was one of the major difficulties that faced other Labour governments in the past and he got it sorted right from the start. This will stand him in good stead in the coming months.”

However, with up to two years to go before the next General Election, there is time for Brown to turn things round.

He said: “It’s reasonable to assume the next election will be in the long term rather than the short term. This means we have every chance to win a historic fourth term under Gordon Brown.”

Gidon Cohen, lecturer in politics at Durham University, believes Labour could win the next election but thinks the most likely outcome will be a hung Parliament, where no party has overall control.

He said: “Gordon Brown and David Cameron each have different strengths, styles and weaknesses. Gordon Brown gives the perception of knowing what needs to be done, someone who is careful and competent and thinks things through carefully.

“David Cameron is playing for the newer, younger and fresher image. The problem for Gordon Brown is that his image of consistency and control is tied to the economy, and that could cause problems for him.”