Would election loss turn out the lights on Labour?

Oct 4 2009 by Michael Kelly, Sunday Sun

IF Labour loses the next election it may never come to power again. That’s the doomsday scenario of a left-leaning political thinktank which is no friend of the Tories. So are Labour’s days really numbered? Mike Kelly reports . . .

The unpredictability of politics is something the Prime Minister is keenly aware of, seeing his media image go from Capability Brown to Calamity Brown in a matter of months.

For the three months after he came to power in June 2007 he faced down a series of crises with some aplomb which reinforced his apparent statesmanship.

First there was the calmness with which he dealt with the failed terrorist attack in Glasgow within days of him becoming PM. Then the capable way his Government coped with the floods that July and the foot-and-mouth outbreak in August. Even in September as the Northern Rock crisis began it seemed he and Chancellor Alistair Darling had it all under control.

There was talk of a snap General Election but he decided against it and it was to prove a big mistake. From that moment on the wheels fell off.

The Global meltdown spiralled out of control and the resulting credit crunch called into question Brown’s reputation for prudence. The Government’s competence was further questioned when computer disks with the names and personal details of 20 million people was lost after it was posted from the HM Revenue and Customs child benefit office in Washington.

Since then there has been the debacle about Labour’s plan to extend the time suspected terrorists were held to 42 days, the cash for honours scandal and finally the row about MPs expenses claims. Although this was not just a Labour problem it seemed to hurt it more than any other party.

The polls have consistently had Cameron on top - one last week even put Labour in third place behind the Liberal Democrats. But, as Dr Black explained, all is not lost for Labour.

He said: “There’s a long time to before the next election. A lot can change between now and then.”

Even if it were to lose he says it is not a “foregone conclusion” that the Domesday scenario outlined by Compass will come about.

Moves towards Scottish independence could be de-railed by disappointment with the SNP, he said, and the threat to stop union funding is probably scaremongering.

“They might limit the amount of funding but that’s been done a number of times since the Labour party came into being,” Dr Black said. “Some of the unions have already withdrawn funding from Labour, anyway.”

He concedes the cut in MPs would hit Labour the most, but not by as much as predicted.

On the prospects of a Labour defeat, he commented: “Already it seems the problems with the economy are bottoming out. What if things start to pick up, unemployment falls and the housing market improves? People might think Labour has done a good job.

“From the Tory point of view what if it lost the next election? Some might think if it cannot win an election when so much has gone wrong for the Government, the Conservatives, rather than Labour, will never win another election.”