Election 2010: Our friends in the North

Apr 11 2010 by Michael Kelly, Sunday Sun

IT’S said that the fact here in the North we traditionally back Labour has counted against us over the years.

The thinking goes that when the Tories are in power the region is well down the pecking order for Government consideration while it panders to its more traditional support down south.

And when Labour gets in, the North is so taken for granted Labour concentrates its efforts on winning over their traditional political foes.

In reality that is too simplistic but there is the feeling it does not seem to matter who gets in, the North is always viewed as the poor relation.

So when news of an opinion poll putting Labour just two points ahead of the Tories in the North came through, it must have given many in the corridors of power pause for thought.

Was this a seismic shift in the region’s voting intentions or a statistical blip? Not surprisingly, the Tories latched on to the figures with North East Tory peer Michael Bates ebullient - “It is reflecting that the people who feel most let down by Labour are in the Labour heartlands and they are the ones that feel it is time for a change.”

Lord Bates went on to say this meant a number of seats including Tynemouth, Stockton South, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, Sunderland Central and Berwick could fall to the Tories.

But a look at the statistics seems to question this. Of those named, Tynemouth would need a 5.8% swing from Labour to Tory for them to win and Stockton South 6.7%.

At Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland and Sunderland Central they would have to achieve huge swings of 9.2% and 12.7% respectively. Meanwhile in Berwick they would have to achieve an 11.8% swing from long-serving Liberal Democrat Sir Alan Beith, which seems too optimistic.

What would be needed is a landslide against Labour to make a dent in its North support and the impression is the Tories under David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg are struggling to generate the momentum for such a thing. There’s time yet, of course, but it will take a hell of a lot of work.